And here's a set of numbers:

Looking at a raw batch of 280 races (all races, any races)

In 192 cases one or more placegetter was saddlecloth 1, 2 or 3. (In only 88 races no placegetters in first three numbers.)

Of 840 placegetters (280 x 3) 284 were in top three saddlecloth numbers. 33%.

There were only 4 cases where all three placegetters were in top three, i.e. #1, #2 and #3. There were 80 cases where two placegetters were #1, #2 or #3.

Figures don't account for races with no third div. and other such factors. Just raw figures. But it seems in about 60% of races one or more placegetter is 1, 2 or 3. And a third of all placegetters carry 1, 2 or 3 - what you'd expect in a ten horse race, I suppose.

A general question about placegetters. They are a very diverse bunch with diverse characteristics. Is it the *third* placegetter that makes the stats such quicksand? Is there more terra firma looking at only first and second placegetters and chasing them?

If someone can answer that question for me it might save lots of wear and tear on the calculator.

Thanks

Hermes