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Originally Posted by garyf
One thing for the guests & non-subscribers to read.
OPEN BM-60 RACES (NO-AGE RELATED).
ALL HORSES MIN OF 3 STARTS (BEFORE SCR).
SKY-1 (6G)
02/02/2014-05/06/2015.
OUT-3,400 (4W) (11.7%).
RET- 1440.(B/O/3 -S/P).
-1960.(L.O.T 57.6%).
AV-DIV-$3.6.
BIGGEST DIV $5.0.
Last winner 02/09/2014 R6-5 TAMWORTH..
Since then 18 consecutive losses.
I have hundreds of these & worse,
Regarding wizard panels opening favourites,
At certain tracks (MORNINGTON MY GOD),
1st opening fav in some race types.
As a bookie open your bag & let the punters throw,
Their money in it will not be coming back out.
But they are lay plans & who gives a F--- about them.
The point here is how can you analyse things like the above,
Into a ratings plan & make it profitable by analysing factors.
Do not want to put you off but that's the challenge you face.
So what can we learn with this post.
Review a certain Race-Type.
Look at the exact age & sex of the horse(s),
That win them
What selection(s) in your ratings compliments it.
THEN.
starts.
price
distance.
track condition(not to mention bias on the day to be recorded)
state.
country-provincial on & on it goes.
That's my 2 bobs worth.
Good luck with the thread & the ratings challenge.
Cheers.
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Hi Gary,
If you can come up with these type of LAY plans, then you know where not to bet and you bet around those horses using your own strategies.
So for those that don't give a flying potato about laying, you're actually finding value around those layable horses.
My small contribution to the discussion for backing methods and ratings is this....
In 1974 an American called Fred Davis produced a book titled "Percentages and Probabilities". In the book he displayed tables, which included a new statistical technique for analysing horse racing information: the Impact Value.
Soon after other books started to display Impact Value figures such as the excellent "Winning At The Races" by Bill Quirin. Over the next few decades nearly all US handicapping experts mentioned impact values somewhere in their books.
punter reading the form - the same info read by a million punters each day
The past ten years has seen impact values really take off in the US. Their importance is now worth more than speed figures in 'Handicapping' software packages.
Here in the UK impact values are mostly ignored. It seems we are too obsessed with form figures, top trainers and jockeys, 'hyped' horses, newspaper naps and tipsters.
Only Nick Mordin promotes the use of impact values. You can read his excellent work in the Sporting Life / Racing Post Weekender, and in his own books.
What Exactly Is An Impact Value?
An impact value is a statistical technique, which produces an index derived from the percentage of winners having a characteristic divided by the percentage of starters having the characteristic. Lets look at some examples.
Last Time Out Winners
Examining 69234 runners in 6678 races on the all weather we find that 5548 were last time out winners. Of those last time winners 1107 went on to win this race.
IV = % of winners that were LTO winners / % of runners that were LTO winners
IV = (1107 / 6678) / (5548 / 69234)
Impact Value = 2.07
This means that, on the all weather, a last time out winner is twice as likely to win than a horse who did not win lto.
First Run On All Weather
22208 horses ran in 1896 3yo+ Handicaps. 2513 of those horses were having their first run on the all weather. 144 of these 'first timers' won the race.
IV = (144 / 1896) / (2513 / 22208)
Impact Value = 0.67
In 3yo+ Handicaps a horse having his first run on the all weather is 0.67 times less likely to win than a horse who has run on the surface before.
2nd LTO in 2yo Maiden Stakes
33476 horses ran in 3127 2yo maiden stakes on the turf. 2264 of them were 2nd on their last race. Of this group 636 won the race.
IV = (636 / 3127) / (2264 / 33476)
Impact Value = 3.01
In 2yo Maiden stakes a horse that finished 2nd last time out is 3 times more likely to win than a horse that did not.
An impact value of 1.00 means that horses have won no more or no less than their fair share of the races. Below 1.00 means they are performing below expectation, above 1.00 means they are performing above expectation.
How Can Impact Values Find Winners?
There are two ways to use impact values. You can either look for positive features to determine if a horse is worth backing, or negative features when trying to eliminate horses.
But you should not look at the impact value figure in isolation. You should examine both the impact value and the ROI% figure.
A strong positive value for both of them is what you need to find as this indicates a group of horses who are winning more races than they should, and are going of at prices higer than they should.
Looking again at the 2yo maidens who were 2nd last time, they may have an impact value of 3.00 but a level stake bet on all of them would have made a 10% loss.
In 4yo+ long distance (12f or more) Handicaps on the all weather, Colts have an impact value of 1.84 and have also returned a profit of 32%. These are the kind of positive stats you should be looking out for.
This is courtesy of flatstats, but explains it well.
I consider Impact Values important, along with prices, they are not the road to riches alone!