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Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Hi Gary,
If you can come up with these type of LAY plans, then you know where not to bet and you bet around those horses using your own strategies.
So for those that don't give a flying potato about laying, you're actually finding value around those layable horses.
An impact value is a statistical technique, which produces an index derived from the percentage of winners having a characteristic divided by the percentage of starters having the characteristic.
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A couple of gems of wisdom here from CP. And to add another, I think from Bill Benter (possibly the most successful gambler in history), "
Find the horses that CAN'T win first!"....also known as Laying opportunities, for the backers in denial! So if you think in reverse, you might just do better at backing?
The second gem of CP's is about finding characteristics pertaining to a certain group, be they likely winners or losers. It's where I was coming from in an earlier post. Once you collect your data, you need to filter it to find those groups. Here's an example below where I query my database with 1,1,1,1 (as in ranks of a value/rating). When displayed on a scatter plot, the winners are shown in the left hand table and the losers with a price >=$5 Back in the right table. This group haven't won a race yet (duration of data collected). What does that tell you"
If a backer....don't waste your money on selections rated 1,1,1,1 >=$5
If a layer....look to lay the above.
None of it's rocket science and anyone with a bit of excel knowledge, heaps of patience and prepared to put in the time, can create opportunities for themselves.