4th August 2015, 08:55 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 463
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Thanks for the reply walkermac, that looks reasonably easy to put in place if I follow your instructions. I'd probably stick with the averages as not every horse would've ran at the venue or at the distance or a combination of both etc etc in the last 10 runs.
I just get the feeling this data could be pretty useful in helping to determine the better prospects of the race based on where you think they may settle. i.e. if a horse has a sub par late speed compared to other runners and you expect it to settle on the rail midfield or at the back of the field then its likely they won't win. Compare that to a horse with good late speed jumping from a decent barrier in a field with mediocre early speed and you've got a combination that could land you the winner. The examples above are the extremes and are more situational but even in a typical race I think the speed data could help combined with settling position predictions.
In terms of the communal ratings proposal, in a previous thread CP showed that certain tracks at certain distances favor leaders much more compared to others. That way if you have a relatively accurate pre-race speed map and an understanding of the pace for the race you can bet on those leader types at particular venues/distances. People stated they were doing this in-running because at that stage your speed map is 100% correct, you can see who is leading. The issue arises by doing it pre race and getting an accurate speed map together.
I feel like its possible and worked at it for a while but couldn't find the success I wanted to. Still a project I plan to try again in the future but need to take a fresh look at it I think.
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