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Quote:

Originally Posted by Tipsy

I've just been fiddling around with my systems. My MAIN system (not the one that drives me spare with Vic & NSW class), one I've followed for decades, with Herald Sun form guides, a pencil and paper, once again came up trumps. It's uncanny in it's consistency given that it has few bets ..... I've used Chrome Princes database for several years now so it's easier.

It got me thinking that there must be some shrewd punters out there who are extremely selective when they bet and only have a few bets each month. Why not with systems?

My system focuses on Open Hcp, Listed, Group 11 and Group 111 races only, so the bets are mainly in springtime in Melb and Sydney, and over the year there will be approx. 30 bets, that's all! The return is nearly 60% on a win strike rate of 25% and the maximum number of outs is 11. It shows a place profit also, but I only bet for the win.

It's not been backfitted because when I started way back when I had hair I was drawn to one main filter (there are no weights filters, days between runs, track condition, margins) and added 5 more which includes Metro as one of them. Will it keep working?, I don't know. How many would follow it?, only me probs

It's certainly NOT the holy grail

I recall Shane Dye saying if he was a punter he would only have one bet each year on the favourite in the Golden Slipper. Not sure how that would have gone, but the comment was interesting. If you're a Vic you could back Lloyd Kennewell's horses when they come over ..... who knows? Food for thought at least. There'll be a couple of well credentialed NZ horses come over and clean up this spring as they normally do.

Hi Tipsy

The issue with this type of strategy is that the nature of probability and statistical variance means that it will take a long time to know whether or not your system is actually successful, you simply can’t avoid it. I'm not saying it won't be, i'm simply pointing out some facts associated with the math.

So lets make some assumptions:

Betting Bank : $10,000
Strike rate : 25%
POT 10% (most professionals struggle in today's environment to achieve this
in reality before factoring in any rebates)
2 lines of deviation (95% of the time your returns will be in this range)

If you bet 30 selections in a year like you suggest, then the range of returns will could fall between a loss of $1,430 to a profit of $1,930. In fact it doesn't matter whether it takes you a year or a week to make those 30 bets the figures remain the same.

Back on point, you would need to make 1,452 bets in total using the above assumptions before the range of your returns would be somewhere between break even and a profit of $23,232. Importantly at some stage during this cycle of 1,452 bets you will experience draw down on your betting capital. The above scenario factors in a maximum of 50% draw-down which means that at some stage you will have a draw-down figure of approximately $5,000 assuming you have in the first place a betting edge of 10%. It could happen when you start or at any other stage during the cycle. In fact it could reach the implied maximum more than once during the cycle.

In summary, we believe that the most successful betting strategies are ones that provide a balance between an adequate number of bets and a reasonable strike rate. Getting the combination right largely depends on what type of punter you are. I wish you all the best and hope this helps.