6th August 2015, 12:26 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tipsy
PaulD01
"The issue with this type of strategy is that the nature of probability and statistical variance means that it will take a long time to know whether or not your system is actually successful, you simply can’t avoid it."
There's more than 25 years of data, a Race Census data base for the past 15 and before that at least 10 years of hand written results. Given the small amount of bets it wasn't difficult to keep for those 10+ years. I've only been punting it for the past few years and you can go a fair while without a winner.
Shaun you're spot on with your assessment, and maybe a gem with the Pegasus idea.
Thanks for all the responses.  |
Hi Tipsy,
As I said i'm not saying it won't be successful and I take your point regarding the data that you have showing that it's currently successful. The relevant key point is that based on the number of bets required to ensure that it is and will continue to be successful overall means that at 30 bets p.a and 1,452 bets required to prove its success, then that equates to more than 48 years. The bottom line is that such a method is not feasible as its simply does not provide enough action. In any case I hope it continues to work for you.
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Regards
Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
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