I came across an article today that reminded me of this thread. I won't link to it as it'll probably be edited out anyway...

"attempting to determine whether horses take up running positions according to their raw early speed ability or more in keeping with their historical running style."

"the table below, displays a predicted settle position using only historical settle position data as the basis for the prediction, versus actual settle position. Those predicted to lead in the race did so on 29.3% of occasions and were in the first 3 in running 62.6% of the time."

"the table below shows a predicted settle position using only raw early sectional time speed data (ETRPrR) as the basis for the prediction, versus actual settle position. Those predicted to lead in the race now did so on 25.1% of occasions and were in the first 3 in running 55.1% of the time. This was from the same sample of approx. 1,800 races."

"What we can do is look at how the two measures interact with one another. It makes sense that a runner with top ranking on historical run-style and the top ranking on early speed ability should lead races at a higher rate than either factor considered independently. This in fact is the case, with this type of runner leading on 43% of occasions (up from 29% based on one measure only). Likewise, a runner with top ranking on historical run-style and a ranking on early speed ability outside of the top 6, ends up leading races at a rate of 13%, much lower than the single measure, 29% benchmark."