
27th August 2004, 05:12 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 148
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Butternut,
Assuming your selections are all at $5 on the tote, the winning chance of each selection is about 17.5% (the real chance to 100% market is $5.70).
The incidence of winners in five bets is as follows -
No winners - 38.2%
One winner - 55.4%
Two winners - 5.5%
Three winners - 0.8%
Four winners - 0.11%
Five winners - 0.017%
In every 100 race days, you will outlay $20000. You will get nothing back on 94 days, $500 on 5 days, $2500 on 1 day. That's $5000 for your $20000. Of course, the one day in 909 you get 4 winners or the one day in 5882 you get every winner will bolster the bank but here is the undeniable fact .....
ALLUP BETTING CANNOT TURN LOSING FIGURES INTO WINNING FIGURES IN THE LONG RUN.
Show me the maths that proves I'm wrong and I will apologise profusely and give $500 to the charity of your choice. I'm pretty sure I'll be keeping my gorilla though.
The only thing that allup betting will do to the figures that you yourself admit are losing figures is redistribute the payouts so they are larger but less frequent.
Sorry but you aren't the messiah - you're a very naughty boy for spreading such untruths.
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