The trick with the recovery staking method is trying to get set when the stakes required hit a ludicrous amount.

Below is a list of expected runs of outs as listed by the legendary Bhagwan.

Strike Rate (%) = Maximum Losing Run
5 = 135 // 10 = 66 // 15 = 43 // 20 = 31 // 25 = 24 // 30 = 19 // 35 = 16 // 40 =14 // 45 = 12 // 50 =10 // 55 = 9 // 60 = 8 // 65 = 7 70 = 6 // 75 = 5 // 80 = 4 // 85 = 4 // 90 = 3 // 95 = 2


So you can see a 5% strike rate, has a chance of a MASSIVE 135 run of losing bets, enough to put most punters off their weetbix for a long while.

Looking at the above figures, assuming a 40% SR and a chance of 14 outs in a row, could we set our target run to a max run of 8? That way we'd only ever get on bad run in a row, limiting the carnage?

How would we calculate the average worst losing runs and possibly aim for our run of bets to go one bet more to cover our losses?

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Strike Rate (%) = Maximum Losing Run
5 = 135 // 10 = 66 // 15 = 43 // 20 = 31 // 25 = 24 // 30 = 19 // 35 = 16 // 40 =14 // 45 = 12 // 50 =10 // 55 = 9 // 60 = 8 // 65 = 7 70 = 6 // 75 = 5 // 80 = 4 // 85 = 4 // 90 = 3 // 95 = 2

Looking again at the figures above, using a 40% SR (0.4), means that we have a 60% (0.6) chance of hitting a loser.

If look at a run of 6 outs in a row: 0.6x0.6x0.6x0.60x0.6x0.6 = 0.047 or 4.7% chance of hitting 6 losers in a row. Meaning you'd win the target sequence 95.3% of the time. The issue is the massive losses that you would incur on those 4.7 times out of 100 that the shizzle hits the manizzle.

If it's a winning system then you should magnify POT somewhat, however I still need to be convinced that it will turn a losing sequence into a winner.

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WHAT I WOULD BE REALLY INTERESTED IN, is hearing if anyone is using a target betting sequence putting on all bets at once, as I believe you once did partypooper using 5 as a divisor? (only working from memory)

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The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty