Here's some interesting stats on placegetters that should be of interest to place betters and those hunting trifectas. I know the stats have all been done before and I'm reinventing the wheel here, but you can learn a lot from doing a few stats yourself - it is a wheel worth reinventing.

What I did was examine a stack of races looking at placegetters vis-a-vis the MIDWEIGHT. The midweight is simply the middle weight in the race. If top weight = 56kg and bottom weight = 50 kg. Midweight = 53kg.

How many placegetters were above or below the midweight?

A. Three placegetters above the midweight = 17% of the sample.
B. Two placegetters above, and one below = 34% of sample.
C. Two below and one above = 25%
D. Three below = 6%

(If a placegetter was on the midweight I counted it above or below depending on the other two. Found no cases of three placegetters on the midweight.)

It was a small sample but trends are there in even small samples. There are four types of possible results: A, B, C and D.

I reckon the proportions will eventually pan out at about: 40/30/20/10. - with A = 20, B = 40, C = 30 and D = 10.

These stats match others that tell us, for example, that there is a distinct bias among placegetters for the lower saddlecloth numbers (topweights).

Similarly, I'm told (by a trifecta enthusiast) that trifectas are rarely filled by the three market favourites. More often, two of the three market favourites, and one other. Much the same pattern.

This could have many practical applications. For example, I rate horses in a race according to how likely I think they are to run a place. If, however, I have three selections above the midweight in my ratings, the rule should be: have a closer look. Only about 20% of races have three placegetters above the midweight. Is this race really one of them? Or is there a horse below the midweight that I've overlooked? If there is, chances are it will pay well (but it will be correspondingly more difficult to pick).

I haven't checked but I imagine prices follow much the same pattern. (Only talking about handicaps here.)

Three above the midweight = trifectas that pay the least.
Two above and one below = pay better
Two below, one above = pay better still
Three below = pay best.

In general I'm beginning to think that the long-term success of placebetting (and trifectas) depends on how many of the below midweight placegetters you can pick. So my next task is to try to find common characteristics of that allusive below midweight placegetter.

As always, constructive suggestions welcome..

Still at it.

Hermes