Have to disagree. Just because your perceived edge is wrong doesn't mean you won't profit. You WILL be wrong many times, times when your perceived edge of 10% is actually only breakeven. There will also be times when your perceived edge of 5% is really 15%.

It doesn't really matter what your perceived edge is, as long as overall you have an edge (unless this leads to overbetting). Individual bets don't matter. You'll make good bets and bad bets. What matters is that overall the good bets outnumber or outvalue the bad bets.