Originally Posted by UselessBettor

Your serious on this ? 1K bets on a 10K bank. I'll assume your joking on that part and your more likely to bet $100 per 10K which is still stupidly high.

You really don't have enough information (or have not provided the right information) to make a judgement call on either system. Right now I would say both would be thrown away as far I was concerned. I have thrown away better systems then the two you posted. You may ask why ....

1. You haven't taken into account the affect of your bets on the market. It looks like you are betting the place for those strike rates. Your $1K bet will turn many of your $1.40 into $1.30 on the tote. If you try to bet those successfully with a bookie good luck getting 1K on. There isn't enough cash in the betfair place markets to handle those bet sizes without significant issues in changing the Betfair SP price to a losing price.

2. Your overcommitting if you think you can bet 10%. 1% is crazy enough. I don't even bet close to 1% and have a much higher strike rate then you.

3. Max run of outs is a laughable statistical measure. Sure use it as a guide but its basically of little use unless you multiply it by at least 3. The problem is it doesn't take into account losing 5 times then winning once and then losing 4 times. You now have lost 9 out of 10 bets and your bank is at 10%.

4. If you really think you can handle losing say 30% of your bank and not have heart palpitations and extreme stress levels then you truly are a gambler at heart. Try for a maximum of 2%-3% of your bank instead as your maximum drawdown.

5. You need to provide much more information. How long is this tested across ? I am assuming years based on 2-3 bets per week ? How many of those periods were up/down. Is at least every year in profit ?

There are at least another 4 things I would consider before even contemplating even looking at improving one of these systems.

The problem most system punters have is they don't understand the numbers inside out. Can you tell me the distribution of losers over 10 bets, 100 bets , 1000 bets ? Can you tell me the likely recovery period for a loss? Can you tell me the expectation of your losers tomorrow based on today ? Can you tell me whether your results are based on luck or an edge ? Can you tell me why your systems have an edge. What gives you that edge that the other punters don't know. By the way I want you to ask these questions to yourself not actually just tell me the answers as I don't care what they are but you should.

Challenge yourself to do better. These are mediocre systems at best which could be used by an amateur punter with a small outlay. You don't need to listen to me but I do know what I am talking about when it comes to systems as in the last 30 months of punting(2.5 years) I have only had 2 losing months which both only produced a small loss. Both were due to me being overconfident and greedy and not sticking to my hard rules on what classifies as a successful system.