18th November 2016, 07:54 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 59
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I had a look at your query and using the much maligned TAB prices ....
Taking 395,909 horses in races of 8 to 14 starters (and NO other criteria) we find that :
Prices of $1.50 to $5.00 produce an AWSR of 26.17%, and Av.Div. Of $3.31 and a POT of (13.39%).
Favourites in these same races produce a WSR of 30.98%, Av.Div. $2.83, and a POT of (12.35%).
Prices of >$5.00 generate a (price graduated) AWSR of 5.8%, Av.Div. of $12.95, and a POT of (24.83%).
So, looking at selections that are rattling around $5 and less, the “edge” you require from your system must exceed +/- 13% just to break EVEN (over time). In other words .... your method must identify horses which have been mispriced by the market to this extent (by under estimation).
Be extra careful of methods/systems/results which rely on samples of 30 or less or those that indicate they can predict short term trends in (for example) runs of Favs. Anybody that can do this is already making a fortune on ASX.
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