9th September 2017, 03:28 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
|
|
English Premier League Predictions for Week 4
Hi to all,
As I promised my rugby friends, I located my soccer predictions program and updated it. I coded and ran last season’s 380 EPL matches to create the EPL starting ratings for this season. I give promoted teams the average ratings of the relegated teams, to start the new season. I just finished and now have predictions for EPL week 4.
As I do for rugby, for each team, I calculate an offensive rating, a defensive rating and the team’s constancy. I also calculate the home advantage in points. For soccer, I calculate three probabilities: for a home win, draw and away win (home loss). By the end of the season, my average probabilities are within 1% of the actual fraction of home wins, draws and away wins. I calculate the fair decimal odds for all three possibilities. As with rugby, whenever bookmaker decimal odds are higher than my fair odds, you have an edge. I added a page to explain my soccer predictions. In the future, I will post new predictions a day or two after the last game is played. These are late since I just finished.
Good luck!
Ray Stefani
|