In complete contrast to the "Simple Selection System" I posted, which is about fairly mindless scatter-gun betting, chasing the horses you'd never select otherwise, here's a detailed method of selecting sure things to place.

I'd really appreciate some feedback from experienced and serious placebetters. I'm interested in serious placebetting. First step for me: achieve a really solid strike rate. Super-cautious bets. My "system" is evolving. I'm adding insights, statiscal filters, whatever. Unlike the simple selection method I posted, this is not mechanical. It depends on being able to assess a race and the more you really know about horse racing the better you'll do. I don't think there is any substitute for that.

But it is still based on last start winners. It is based on the stat that gives last start winners a high chance of running a place. Its a good stat.

I've got a couple of versions of this system. Basically it is:


Race Selection

*No more than fourteen runners in a race. Twelve or less preferred. In a fourteen horse race are there at least two runners you can eliminate as having no chance?
*No hurdles or steeples.
*No 2yo or maidens
*Metropolitan races only.
*Not too many last start winners:

8 runners = no more than 2
9 runners = 2
10 runners = 2
11 runners = 3
12 runners = 3
13 runners = 3
14 runners = 4

Where there are several last start winners, check them out in detail. If the race is too competitive, no bet.

*No races where there are two zip star horses.
*No races where all runners are within four points of zip. Look at the zip. How many horses are below four points of zip? If none or too few, no bet.

Don't be tempted into relaxing parameters for races to create more bets. It is better to have fewer races or even none some weeks. The objective is sure bets over time. Be patient.

Qualifiers

Qualifiers are last start winners.

Where there are several last start winners, read their detailed form. Which ran the better last race in times and lengths, at which track, carrying what weight? Compare and rate them.

Essential Parameters:

*Ran within the last 28 days.
*A Nines horse. (Good results last four starts)
*Within 4 of the Zip.
*Within the top prizewinners in the race:

8 runners = 2
9 runners = 2
10 runners = 3
11 runners = 3
12 runners = 4
13 runners = 4
14 runners = 4

Look carefully at the prizewinners. A selection MUST have a strong prizewinning percentage to match its recent form.

*Barrier to runner. Look at barrier. Do you think the horse's run will be effected by its barrier position? Is it a frontrunner with a wide barrier? If there are any doubts, no bet.
*Place percentage rate above 33%. Essential.
*Eliminate if no starts this track AND no starts this distance, unless this is true of all runners.

Preferred Parameters.

Qualifiers must satisfy at least five of these seven parameters.

*A win strike rate better than 12.0%.
*A place strike rate better than 47%
*Won over this distance.(especially after five or more starts).
*Placed at this track (especially after three or more starts).
*No zeros in its form figures.
*1st to 6th place in its second last start.
*Saddlecloth 1, 2, 3 or 4.


Jockey & Trainer

Look at jockey and trainer, especially if a horse does not meet several of the preferred parameters. A good jockey/trainer can overcome a lack of some parameters; but also a horse that meets all or most parameters can overcome mediocre jockey/trainer. If a horse has the state's top jockey/trainer combination you might decide to relax some of the preferred (but not the essential) parameters.

Final Check & Selection

Final check: We are looking for a quality horse in good recent form in a good barrier position with a good trainer and a good jockey that has a proven ability to be in the money at the winning post. Have we got one?

Basically, this method involves reading up the form of the last start winners in selected races. In the end the question is: Do you think it will be in the first three at the winning post? How do you rate its chances of running first?

If there is only one such horse in a race, it is the selection. Selection is the only horse that fits the parameters. Don't relax the parameters to create more bets. Only relax the parameters because of the weight of other stand-out factors. For instance if a horse has run places in all six last races then it might not matter if it hasn't run a place at this track.

Selections are our FIVE STAR horses. No more than one per race day. We bet to place.

The magic ingredient is: DISCIPLINE. Chase a perfect strike rate. 100%. Bet as if your life depended on it and as if an out is the end of the world.

The selection on Wednesday would have been Moonee Valley, race 4, #1 Silver Birch. (EI's five star horse!)

No fun. But its more fun than going broke.

Serious placebetters: should I pursue this or just buy a tattslotto ticket every week?

Hermes