
4th July 2002, 03:54 PM
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 740
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O.K. but there needs to be a common denominator, you can't compare apples with oranges.
Is it winners per race, winners per QUALIFYING starter, or winners per starter?
When you look at say % of favs saluting, it's favourite per race. The figures all need to be consistant to be able to draw an equivalent evaluation.
Over the last two weekends of racing there were 8 qualifying starters which carried in excess of 59kg.
Not one of those horses saluted, which adds further weight(forgive the pun) to my conclusion that the amount of prizemoney a horse has won has no reflection on it's ability to carry weight.
The ability of a horse to carry weight comes from internal strength and body mass.
Now you could draw conclusions that horses weighing over 1000kg for example, are more likely to be able to carry the extra weight than a horse weighing 750kg. But to say that a horse can carry the extra weight and still be able to win because of the amount of prizemoney it has won is like saying that Greg Norman is a good golfer so therefore he must be a good swimmer.
No logical correlation at all.
The only way to assess correctly if a horse is able to handle the weight is to see if it has carried and won with that weight over the same distance and in the same track conditions.
Anyhow I am going to do some statistical research on this and post it here soon.
Will post actual researched statistics.
[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-04 16:05 ]
[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-04 16:13 ]
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