Question: which is the best horse in the race?

Answer: The horse with the most weight.
(this only applies to handicaps)

Does this mean it will win?
Sometimes.

Research Conclusions on weight:

The worst weighted horse in a handicap is very often the horse on the minimum. Why? Quite simply because the handicapper is not allowed to give it any less weight (due to restrictions placed on him by the rules of the race). So it is forced to carry more weight than it should carry were it to be given an equal chance of winning.

A prime example is this years Stradbroke Handicap. Falvelon and Show A Heart got 56kg.
The bottom weight in the final field was Princess Clang 48kg. On her best form she would have needed to only carry about 40kg if she was to be competitive (in theory) so was in fact carrying 8kg more than what the handicapper would have needed to give her to even up her chances of winning. She was therefore very poorly weighted despite having to carry the lightest impost.

For the reason outlined above horses who carry the minium weight are often the worstly weighted horse in the race.

You can not dismiss a horse simply because of the big weight it has. You can however dismiss a horse because of the small weight it has. NB. This does not mean that you should never back a horse on the minimum weight.

Any system that throws horses out because of their handicap is a joke.

Each horse must be considered individually and flaws in the handicapping sought after.





[ This Message was edited by: thekey on 2002-07-04 18:18 ]