When you decide what price you think an animal should be,it's not a matter of simply pulling a number out of thin air.
It needs to be accurate.
If we added up each horses winning chance together it has to tally 100%.
Whatever method you use,get the selections in order of the best winning chance to the least winning chance.
Then imagine this event were to be run 100 times.
Knocks and bumps and luck and timing and a million unforeseen events will and do cause a different finishing order every time.
Next to each horse,write down the number of times you think the horse would win out of these 100 races.
The total has to add up to 100,so you will need to add to some and subtract from some until it looks about right.
You now have a set of percentage win chances for each horse.Divide each chance into 100 and you now have the minimum dividend you should accept.