Hi Dingoboy ,
You have got the right idea about that staking plan.

If one has a 44% SR your expected run of outs would be 12 before striking the next winner.

If you are concerned about conserving limited resorce for punting ,you would be better off betting level stakes for the win.
Ratio 50:1
Remember ,NO BANK -NO CHANCE
Progressive betting of any kind ,requires a much larger bank than level stakes betting.

44% is a very high S/R that indicates to me that a lot are paying $2.90 & less .
You would need an average div. of $2.30 to break even.
So try not to bet mules paying any less than that figure .

I would suggest to try & target Mules paying $3.20+ because those short prices won`t get up forever ,which means there is a strong chance ,that you could take a while to claw back any possible losses & you will get them.
In other words if your selection indicates that it is going to pay less than $3.20 then no bet that race .
This is where the dicipline thing comes into it all.

Try & target races with 8-12 runners if place betting only.
Any less ,no 3rd div is paid.
Any more & the divs arn`t there to warrant the extra risk.

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Cheers.