6th February 2018, 05:53 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
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EPL Round 27
This will show you what a crazy league the EPL is. I decided to evaluate what ought to be a stupid betting strategy: bet on a draw in every game. Since the bookies discount their fair odds by 7-10% to make a profit, making myopic bets like that ought lose 7-10%, or so I thought. I still had the bookie odds for 8 of the last 9 rounds. If you bet one unit bet on each of the 80 matches, the 27 draws returned 100.65 units for a 26% profit. Crazy!
I looked at all 78 value bets I calculated for rounds 6 through 26, because I still had bookie draw odds for the 78 matches. If you bet one unit on each of the 78 matches, the 30 draws returned 102.71 units for a 32% profit.
I think the reason there are more draws than the bookies expect is that both teams settle for a point every so often to rest, because they can’t play hard in all matches due to all those cup matches along with the 38 league matches. I’ll check that crazy scheme going forward.
Good luck,
Ray Stefani
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