7th February 2018, 11:34 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 463
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Bookie Moneyback Beater
Am I looking at this completely wrong or is it possible to lock in a profit for each and every 'money back if it comes 2nd or 3rd' promo? I know people have looked at it before on the forum but played around with some figures today and just want to check if I'm missing something.
Let's say race 4 at Caulfield on saturday was money back if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd up to a max bet of $50.
We decide that we want to do this with the runner 'Last Week'. Because I don't have the BF data prior to jump or the fixed odds that were available i'm just basing this on assumptions for the point of the exercise. Obviously doing it in real time could be completely different but stay with me. Note i've based the BF commission on 7%.
Bookie bet: We place a $50 win bet on Last Week at $2.40 fixed odds
Betfair Win Lay: We place a win lay with betfair using a $44 lay liability (Odds $2.52)
Betfair Place Lay: We place a place lay with betfair using a $13 lay liability (Odds $1.32)
If Last Week Won:
We collect $120 for the fixed odds win bet then take away our stake ($50), our Win Lay ($44) and our place Lay ($13) and are left with a $13 profit.
If Last Week Placed:
We collect $26.92 profit from our Win Lay, we receive money back for our Bookie Bet and we lose $13 on our place lay for overall profit of $13.92
If Last Week Doesn't Place:
We collect $37.78 profit on the Place Lay, we collect $26.92 on the Win lay, but we lose $50 from our Bookie Bet for an overall profit of $14.70
Is there something I'm missing here or is this available basically each and every weekend that these promos run? Obviously its not huge winnings but its free money.
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