becareful,

It should be noted that I said best, not most likely to win.

An example from Golden Slipper Day in the 1500m race won by Mowerman, Old Comrade was top weight having just won the Australian Cup. Surely he was the best horse in the race(which other horse was a group 1 WFA winner, Referral won the George Ryder at group 1 in 1999 it was the second top weight), however under the conditions of the race did Old Comrade have the best chance to win? Probably not.
Did Referral have the 2nd best chance.
No way.

But until one of these other horses wins at that level these two will be better horses.


How else can you determine what is the best horse in the race other than by looking at past performances?