Here is some commentary on favs starting under $3.00 for today.

Lets see how we go.


Dubbo R1: Beechal $2.90
Rated 99 with three other contenders above 95.
Rated clear second fav on Don Scott ratings.
Rated 2nd for the race, 5th in BL3 and 6th on career.
PrizeMoney shows step up from last race but has performed ok in similar class previously.
12 month and career looks good. Distance has 1 loss from 1 race.
Wide barrier for its running style but a good jockey.

Decision : Its at $2.90 so does it have a 30% chance of winning? More then likely this horse will either just hold on or not run a place. Do not bet.

Dubbo R3: KENNY SUCCEED $2.75
Rated 88 but only three horses rated higher.
Rated 5th on Don Scott Ratings.
Rated poorly on all ratings, BL3 and career.
Similar PrizeMOney (slight step up) and performing ok with wins and placings recently.
The Course record is good but the rest are ok at best.
Barrier is wide but jockey is ok.
Depsite all this it has the highest AES and AFS which is good.

Decision: Stay out of this race. Too many conflicting signals

Dubbo R4: RISK AND REWARD $2.10
Rated 94 and 3 horses rated 95 through to 97.
Ratings are competitive but not top rated. Very close in last BL3. Career rating is concerning. But being a young horse ratings can improve. Prepared to forgive.
Running in similar class but slight step up. Form is very good.
Barrier is concerning with it wanting to lead.
Jockey is poor with 8% strike rate.
Distance and 12 month/career stts are good.
Weight is a concern considering it tired last start at 100m shorter with less weight.

Decision : Expected to perform well but too many queries on it winning. Bet for a Place chance.