2nd April 2018, 06:46 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,425
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Hi Twobets,
Yes, I am a horsey person. Apart from RaceCensus Database, doing some arbitrage, the punt, the horse rescue organisation I run, and the natural horsemanship training I have done for horse trainers, and ridden track work, I can tell you from speaking with various trainers, and spoken to quite a few of them in depth, that gear and rider changes are extremely significant. Just as some horses don't race well on synthetic tracks.
But beware, sometimes a trainer has a plan to get a drop in weight due to performance, or perhaps to get better odds for the stable next start, not this start or perhaps it's their last hope to see if things improve before retiring the horse.
Sometimes rider changes are purely because a jockey was injured, or a jockey can't make the weight.
I cannot provide statistics on rider changes for you, because my database doesn't work that way, just gives the jockey which rode the horse, but it's significant if a senior jockey like Damien Oliver, Craig Williams etc. is a jockey swap. Any senior jockey, not riding for the stable they usually race for and is a jockey swap, is good to keep an eye on.
Some trainers will won't tell you a thing, you have to be around the stable, others are quite open if you've had some dealings with them in the past.
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