Tommorow (Sat. 6th July) the Five Star with Bells On It place bet is...

Race 2 Sunshine Coast, #1 Past Blast.

It meets all the parameters on paper. The only horse in all tommorow's races to do so.

Race parameters - OK. 14 runners. Hcp. 1200m. One zip star. However, four last start winners in 14. A question mark.


*Ran within the last 28 days yep.
*A Nines horse - yep.
*Within 4 of the Zip - yep.
*Within the top prizewinners in the race - yep, but fourth best. Question mark.


*Barrier to runner. Runs from behind, barrier 8 in 14. No worries.
*Place percentage rate above 33%. Essential. - yep. 58.6%
*Eliminate if no starts this track and this distance - starts at track and distance are outstanding!

Qualifiers must satisfy at least five of these seven parameters.

*A win strike rate better than 12.0% - yep.
*A place strike rate better than 47% - yep.
*Won over this distance.(especially after five or more starts).- excellent!
*Placed at this track (especially after three or more starts).- very good!
*No zeros in its form figures. - no last places.
*1st to 6th place in its second last start.- yep, a good fourth.
*The highest weighted last start winner. - YES!
*Saddlecloth 1, 2 or 3. - YES!

Jockey and trainer OK. I like Cahill.

None of the other last start winners in the race can match it on paper. The best of them is #4 Youthful, but it fails on average prizewinnings. (But Past Blast's aren't that flash.)

Past Blast's last was a blast. It won at Doomben on the 26/6. Came from near last and ran 'em down. Was in a difficult spot and overcame it. I like that.

So selection is #1 Past Blast to place.

HOWEVER, look at its weight. That weight and four other last start winners in a field of 14, without a more healthy prizewinning average. Gee. If I was betting real money on it, I wouldn't be so sure. Like I say, I'm aiming for a super-high strike rate. A couple of bets a week, or even one, is fine. Got Silver Birch on Wednesday.

In a real life investment situation you could have a lot of money riding on these place bets. That's why you want precision. Err on the side of caution.

Here I'd have to judge the weight factor, the other last start winners (not forgetting #11 Wagstaffe), against Past Blast's impressive track/distance record which is the stand-out stat in this race. Past Blast is coming up in fitness I reckon. Will the weight drag it back beyond third? Excuse me for thinking aloud....

Selection is #1 Past Blast - Hermes Five-Star with Bells On It place bet for the day. So safe you could almost bet your marriage on it.

#11 Wagstaffe and #8 Slick Operator the other placegetters.

Trifecta: box 1,4, 8, 11.

Hermes