Last season, I demonstrated the unpredictability of congested fixtures by pointing out that over several weeks of those fixtures, a bettor could make a profit by following the preposterous strategy of betting on a draw in every match. That led to suggesting a system to take the risk out of draws by splitting bets between draws and wins. This season, here is an equally preposterous strategy. There were so many unexpected upsets during the congested fixtures of rounds 18, 19 and 20, that a bet on every underdog would have made a profit of 220% (round 18), 40% (round 19) and 70% (round 20). Round 21 starts tomorrow. It seems that the best strategy for congested fixtures is to stay away from betting those rounds (which also means you do not have to split bets between draws and wins on normally-spaced fixtures).

I suppose you could tinker with some kind of contrarian strategy for congested fixtures.

Liverpool is now ahead of Man City in my rating systems. I think the rest of the season will be a battle between those two.

Happy New Year to all.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 21.doc (57.0 KB, 196 views)