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Quote:

Originally Posted by NitroPunter

Hi Ray

Just found this thread and I am eager to learn more.

Using this current week as an example.

Bournemouth V Chelsea - game fails Rules 1 & 3

Arsenal V Cardiff - fails rules 3 & 4

Fulham V Brighton - Value Bet? with Brighton RB 3.5 > RF 1.76.
Working from a $1000 bank as an example - what bet would be made here?

Hudderfield V Everton - Everton RB $1.97 > Rf 1.79
Is this a qualifying bet?

Man U V Burnley - fails rule 3 & 4

Wolves V West Ham - West Ham RB 3.85 > Rf 3.01
Bet?

Liverpool V Leicester - 3 & 4

Newcastle V Man City - 3 & 4

Southhampton V Crystal P - Crystal P RB 3.30 > RF 2.64
Bet?

Tottenham V Watford - Tottenham RB1.72 > RF 1.55
Bet?

I hope that makes sense but I am just trying to show my interpretation.

Thanks for your interest.

First, you need to go back over this season and last season and read my commentary on congested fixtures. If a team had a week's rest then plays again in 1/2 week and when a team plays a weekend, mid week and another weekend, those are examples of congested fixtures when teams may chose to reserve players and/or energy. I suggest not betting any congested fixtures. Performances may be unexpectedly diverge for what we would expect. Please read my commentary. Round 24 will be followed by mid-week games, so fixtures are congested so I suggest not betting Round 24. Of course, if you have strong feelings about any games, that is your choice to make.

There would be value bets on the teams you mentioned were it not for congested fixtures. Please read my example to understand my suggestion not to bet more than 10% of bankroll on any one game and not more 25% of bankroll any one week. The numbers based on 1000 are just suggestions, of course.

Regarding Brighton, using the formulas I gave, the Kelly bet would be 1000 (3.5/1.76 - 1)/2.5/2. That would be 198 but I suggest not betting more than 100 (10% of the 1000 bankroll)

Good luck,

Ray Stefani