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Old 18th September 2019, 11:48 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
2920m William Hill St Leger Stakes
(Group 1) (British Champions Series) (3yo) @ Doncaster

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAy70lZxwvk

Going into the race Logician had a 115 rating. This was only his fifth start and his first at Group 1 level. It'll be hard to judge the performance of the other runners until his official handicap is updated. I wouldn't be surprised if he went up to 118+.
Logician got re-rated to 117 following this race. Per Greg Carpenter himself, 0.5kg is equivalent to 1 length over 3200m: near enough to this race distance. So at equal weights Il Paradiso (rated at 115 pounds) would be expected to finish 2 lengths adrift, instead of the 5.25L he actually did. His run reminded me of Marmelo's Melbourne Cup performance in 2017 and we saw last year what the difference was when they timed that horse's prep right. There was 3 weeks between the St Leger Stakes and Il Paradiso's prior race, the 3200m Lonsdale Cup. Perhaps the back-up was too soon for this 3yo.

There's an interesting blog post from the British Handicapping Authority's Matthew Tester regarding the re-rating of Logician and the strength of this race: https://www.britishhorseracing.com/william-hill-st-leger-festival/. He also suggests that Logicians performance could have been as high as a 120, or that he ran as high as a 117 in spite of the conditions and race distance not being his preferred.


Per the Race Conditions there's meant to be an updated Order of Entry sent out each Monday. That doesn't seem to have happened.


Melbourne Cup nominees racing locally over the next few days:


Wednesday
ENTENTEYTPFBCWarwick Farm - Race 1 - 1:25PM ATC MEMBER TOURS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
FAIRLIGHT (IRE)YTPFBCWarwick Farm - Race 3 - 2:35PM EVEREST CARNIVAL HANDICAP (2200 METRES)
MASTER OF WINE (GER)YTPFBCWarwick Farm - Race 6 - 4:20PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
Thursday
ONCE WERE LOST (IRE)YTPFBCNortham - Race 6 - 4:45PM 6PR KIDS DAY OUT SEPT 30 MAIDEN (1600 METRES)
Friday
WREN'S DAY (USA)YTPFBCNewcastle - Race 5 - 3:25PM AUSTRALIAN BLOODSTOCK CAMERON HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
ATTENTION RUN (GER)YTPFBCNewcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)
AZURO (FR)85Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)
BIG DUKE (IRE)41Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)
HUSH WRITER (JPN)88Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)
OUR CANDIDATE (IRE)YTPFBCNewcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)
OUR CENTURY (IRE)64Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)
RED CARDINAL (IRE)YTPFBCNewcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)
SAUNTER BOY (FR)YTPFBCNewcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)
SIR CHARLES ROAD58Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)
SWEET THOMAS (GER)82Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)
THE GOOD FIGHT (NZ)YTPFBCNewcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)
Saturday
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)76Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)
ETYMOLOGY84Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)59Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)
LORD FANDANGO (GER)YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)
NEUFBOSC (FR)44Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)
SELF SENSE83Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)
SIKANDARABAD (IRE)69Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)
STEEL PRINCE (IRE)1Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)
SUPER TITUS (GB)YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)
WOLFE (JPN)YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)
LOOKS LIKE ELVISYTPFBCEagle Farm - Race 8 - 4:07PM MAKERS MARK OPEN Handicap (1835 METRES)
MUNTAHAA (IRE)30Morphettville - Race 5 - 3:16PM Tokyo City Cup (1800 METRES)
VALAC (IRE)89Morphettville - Race 5 - 3:16PM Tokyo City Cup (1800 METRES)
ALIFEROUS71Royal Randwick - Race 3 - 1:30PM SHOOT OUT MILE (1600 METRES)
RE EDITYTPFBCRoyal Randwick - Race 3 - 1:30PM SHOOT OUT MILE (1600 METRES)
CASCADIAN (GB)YTPFBCRoyal Randwick - Race 5 - 2:40PM BILL RITCHIE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
ANGEL OF TRUTH15Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:55PM COLGATE OPTIC WHITE STAKES (1600 METRES)
AVILIUS (GB)5Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:55PM COLGATE OPTIC WHITE STAKES (1600 METRES)
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)20Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:55PM COLGATE OPTIC WHITE STAKES (1600 METRES)
YOUNGSTAR42Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:55PM COLGATE OPTIC WHITE STAKES (1600 METRES)
CARIFYTPFBCRoyal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)
FINCHE (GB)32Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)
GIRL TUESDAYYTPFBCRoyal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)
GREY LION (IRE)63Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)
HARIPOUR (IRE)70Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)
PATRICK ERIN (NZ)50Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)
SCARLET DREAM52Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)
SHRAAOH (IRE)38Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)
SUPERNOVA (GB)YTPFBCRoyal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)


The following Cup nominees trialled yesterday:
BLUE BREEZE (NZ)
BONDEIGER
DIVANATION
LADY YOUNG
SUPERNOVA (GB)
WALL OF FIRE (IRE)
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