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Old 31st October 2019, 08:58 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Evajb001,

Sorry for the late reply to your post but I have been travelling this week and unable to reply.

That is an amazing effort. You should be extremely proud of what you have achieved.

If you know that sports is where you edge is then that is where you should concentrate your efforts. Dabble elsewhere (horse racing) but really nail down your area of expertise and profit from it. My question would be though how sure are you that you have an edge and its not luck based ? What is the result of running an archie score against your results ? (Archie is the equivalent of a short cut chi test). What happens if you remove your biggest winner to your results? What about your 3 biggest winners? Do the same with the losers, ie what is the result excluding your biggest loser or 3 biggest losers? Has it been profitable every day/month/year/season?

Those are the sort of questions you need to ask as a starting point and I think it will help you either become a little bit wary of the results or it will reinforce your belief in your systems.

Turning over 36K in sports is a great start. Can you do 100K in the next 12 months? At an 11% profit I'll assume as you increase turnover that will reduce. Lets assume a 5% profit instead. In order to make 100K a year you need to turnover 2 million dollars. Next year do 100K then make your goal to double that every year. 100K -> 200K -> 400K -> 800K -> 1.6 Mill -> 3.2 Million. So in 6 years you could have a 100K passive income if you can hit this goal even if it reduces your profit percentage by half. The math is quite simple, so if you believe you have the edge you now have a 6 year goal. Work hard at it for 6 years and you have what you want. Seems like a good deal to me.

Of course its not as simple as the above so don't worry about the 2 million. Instead aim for 100K this year. That is simple I do that in a few hours on a Saturday so its very possible for you to do that amount over a year. 100K working backwards is say 40K in the first 6 months and 60K in the second 6 months. Of the 40K in the first 6 months 15K in the first 3 months and 25K the second three months. 15K is only 5K per month turnover. I just read you have done 36K turnover this year so 5K is a piece of cake.

Working through what I would aim for:
1st month = 1K = 1K
2nd Month = 3k = 4K
3rd Month = 5K = 9K
4th Month = 7K = 16K
5th Month = 9K = 25K
6th Month = 10K = 35K
7th Month = 10K = 45K
8th Month = 11K = 56K
9th Month = 11K = 67K
10th Month = 11K = 78K
11th Month = 12K = 90K
12th Month = 12K = 102K

Your aim is to turn over 1K in November, then 3K in December. That should be easy at your current bet levels. When it jumps to 5K it will likley stretch your comfort, when it gets to 10K it will really stretch your comfort. This assumes you stay profitable and continue to build your bank. If you lose you can't continue up the ladder as betting more requires bigger bank. So just don't lose any month and your sweet.

You need to bet within your bank limits but don't hold yourself back by fearing the big loss. If its a small part of your overall bank then you need to be confident you can recover any losses. You will never make more money without betting more, and you will never gain confidence in it till you bet more.

Keep in mind all of the above assumes you have an edge. If you don't then all the advice above will just send you to the poor house quicker.
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