Il Paradiso
3yo CH Colt
Galileo (IRE) - Famous (IRE) [By Danehill Dancer (IRE)]
8s: 2-2-2
Looking to reproduce the result of the past two years, it's a 3yo candidate from the Northern Hemisphere (considered a 4yo in the Southern). Following the victories of Rekindling and Cross Counter, a review was held regarding the handicapping of this type. The result of the review was that their benchmark was increased by 1kg. Cross Counter carried 51kg last year, Il Paradiso will carry 52.5kg this year (i.e. not only was the benchmark weight bumped up 1kg, but he is adjudged as being 1 rating point/0.5kg better; I don't think that's the case, I think it just goes to show that Cross Counter wasn't carrying near enough the weight he should have been).
Il Paradiso is still quite well in at the weights though. Cross Counter's current rating is 118, meaning that with his Official Irish Rating of 111, he should be carrying 3.5kg less (presuming that their ratings are accurate for performances over 3200m). He's carrying 5kg less; i.e. he has 1.5kg in his favour.
What he doesn't have in his favour is his sire. 21 Galileos have crossed the finish line this century and while there have been two seconds and a third, the bulk of his progeny finished outside of the top 10. Is it just bad luck? His stats for runners to winners over 3200m are quite similar to his best distance ranges: 1600m and 2400m. The ones that appear to do well here though are those with higher Stamina figures. Perhaps the style of the Cup is different to those contested over the same distance in Europe and Galileos need a little extra here... The 3 Galileo placegetters each had Stamina figures of 19 or above, and were priced at under $16. Sir Johannes Vermeer in 2017, and Purple Moon and Mahler, both in 2007.
Ispolini has a Dosage Profile of (4-11-21-12-0), a DI of 1.13 and CD of 0.15 (i.e. 3150m is best, approximately). His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-10-1-9-10) with Speed 13, Stamina 19, Index 0.57 and Triads (14-20-20) - i.e. like a less speedy Johannes Vermeer. So he has a good Stamina figure for a Galileo and is currently at $14. He fits the profile....
Greg Carpenter has admitted that Ispolini was difficult to handicap. There haven't been many runs and there hasn't been consistency. He's basically been rated on his last 3 races.
The next was the Lonsdale Cup, another 2 mile race but this time at Group 2 level:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrAn2_XW_Xg. Stradivarius wins relatively narrowly, as per his style, with Dee Ex Bee finishing a nose ahead of Il Paradiso. This was his Cup qualifying race and complicating how to judge it: there were only 4 starters, both Dee Ex Bee and Falcon Eight bled afterward, and Stradivarius only ever does enough to win - he never really smashes the field. Racing Post does indicate that it was run 1.5s faster than normal, but that's about all you can go on.
There are different rules regarding bleeding in the UK, so both Dee Ex Bee and Falcon Eight were back a month later in the Prix du Cadran over 4000m. The former must have felt pretty good, finishing 1.5L from Holdthasigreen and Call The Wind; both of those having form around Marmelo both this year and last.
Finally, wikipedia says that: in a 2005 study, horses finishing races with grade 4 EIPH (i.e. bleeding) were on average 6 metres behind those finishing with grade 0. It's only through repeated bouts where horses can get decreased lung function. Given that the race was 1.5s faster than normal and you'd only expect Dee Ex Bee to perform 3 lengths or so worse than he would regularly, then it's still a pretty good run. Particularly for a 3yo in only his 7th start.
His final race was the Group 1 St Leger Stakes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAy70lZxwvk. Il Paradiso did a fair bit of early work. Western Australia shot out to a big initial lead and Il Paradiso marshalled the chasing bunch. He moved to the lead at the 3 furlong mark and looked about to go on with it, but weakened soon thereafter. I recall writing at the time that it looked pretty clear the jockey was expecting more to be in reserve (NB - a different jockey was on board than was with Il Paradiso on his 3 preceding runs; the new jockey has 5 black type wins, the old - Wayne Lordan - has won over 100 black type races and will be riding him in the Cup).
Logician was the winner and there's no shame losing to him: that was his 5th win from 5 starts. Given the ratings of the placegetters, Il Paradiso was still just 2 lengths off where his rating said he should be.
And now for the bad news: he's the only runner in the final field to have not won black type. He also had the least amount of eligible winnings of all runners after third acceptances once Raheen House dropped out. ....but that's the price of dodging the handicapper.
I've talked myself back around. He'll have the blinkers on. Aidan O'Brien sold Constantinople and not him. I don't think he'll win but he'll go very close. Let's go wild and crazy (and eschew 'the system') and say that he'll come 2nd.