Finche
5yo CH Gelding
Frankel (GB) - Binche (USA) [By Woodman (USA) 1983]
14s: 4-1-3
Ahead of last year's Geelong Cup, Finche's Australian debut, I picked him as a likely Melbourne Cup candidate. I thought he had mixed it with some good Europeans, that he was handicapped fairly, and that he looked as if he would handle the distance. He ended up finishing 3rd in the Geelong Cup (giving away 5kg to those ahead of him) before going on to the Melbourne Cup and finishing in 4th position. He ran at the front of the pack for much of the race, took the lead in the straight and held on to finish just 3.5 lengths from Cross Counter. He stayed on in Australia following the race and enjoyed a long break before resuming again in September.
His first run was over a mile, a distance he hadn't contested since his race debut. This was to be a very different preparation than his inaugural Cup tilt. His new trainer, Chris Waller, was endeavouring to follow a Bart Cummings-style preparation.
“I'm short [of the 10,000m] with Finche and a touch off it with Youngstar in terms of races, but if you add in trials we get there.
“I know my horses get better with racing like [Bart's] did and we get [to the Melbourne Cup] with them ready to peak.”
“I didn’t over-analyse it last year but I knew he would be a stronger horse in 12 months' time,” Waller said. “He has had the benefit of a year in the warmer weather and his preparation is what we wanted.
“If I have a shadow of doubt, it is just the way I train horses for these really big two mile [races] where it is a test. I might be a little bit soft on them but hopefully we get away with it.”
Finche’s preparation adds up to 8000m on racedays, with his two barrier trials taking the figure to 10,200m. I'm not a racehorse trainer; my background is in track and field. If any elite athlete is training for an event like they did in the 1990s, let alone the 1970s, they are doing it wrong. I don't see how getting a horse fit and fast is magically exempt from the progress that has been made in every other sport. I suspect there is far too much mythology associated with racing for it to be wholly logical, particularly when it comes to Bart Cummings and the Cup.
Anyway, next up was the 2000m Kingston Town Stakes. Finche was once more in the leading bunch before beating Stampede by half a length. Every Melbourne Cup nominee in this race subsequently dropped out or missed out on the final field.
Finche shifted to Victoria for the 2000m Turnbull Stakes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe-vi1yMHcA. This was his first Group 1 placing, coming a narrow 2nd to Kings Will Dream. Finche began well and had a good trip in fourth place. Per the Race Notes: he improved nicely at the home turn, challenged coming to the 200m and kept fighting strongly for second, beaten a short head. Also in the field was Vow And Declare (4th 1.5L - 1.5kg better in the Cup), Sound (7th 3.75L - same) and Rostropovich (9th 4.5L - carries 1kg more, somehow).
On to the Caulfield Cup!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esSOa1T_6M4 Finche drew a wide barrier and was caught outside as he once more travelled towards the pointy end. He moved up at the home turn, took the lead at the 300m and then held on for 5th - as several horses ran past him. He doesn't look to have the speed necessary to keep challengers at bay. His awkward running style certainly wouldn't conserve energy; at the end of this race it looked like he was jumping up and down on the spot.
On the plus side: he carries the same weight as he did in the 2018 Cup. Those who finished in front of him last year do worse: Cross Counter (+2.5kg), Marmelo (would have been +1kg) and Prince Of Arran (+1kg). The danger is a new crop of lightly-weighted internationals running him down.
Finche's Dosage Profile is now (6-7-19-14-0) with a DI of 0.96 and a CD of 0.11. That CD looks like 3200m is ideal. His Conduit Mare Profile reads as (3-8-4-13-6) with Speed 11, Stamina 19, Index of 0.62 and Triads of (15-25-23). It looks like even longer is preferred.
He's drawn barrier 4, which is perfect for him given where he'll want to be once the field resolves itself. He looks to be going as well as he was last year with the exact same weight. But....I think it unlikely he'll win; I think it unlikely he'll place. I reckon he'll be somewhere between 4th and 8th again. I'm yet to see him hold off a quality runner in the straight and this field has plenty.