4yo B Gelding

Frankel (GB) - L'ancresse (IRE) [By Darshaan (GB)]

12s: 3-1-2

Frankie Dettori's latest bid for a first Melbourne Cup win will be from on board Master Of Reality. According to today's Herald Sun, Frankie texted Lloyd Williams a picture of his trophies from the Ascot Carnival and said "Melbourne Cup, please. I’m coming to ride Master Of Reality". Frankie was riding Stradivarius in the Gold Cup when Master Of Reality @ $67 finished within one length. He figured that any horse who could match it with Stradivarius at level weights and was a set for a start in the Melbourne Cup was the horse for him. ...but isn't there a saying that jockeys are the worst form experts?

As has been noted a number of times, Stradivarius never puts a distance on the other horses in the race. Up until being beaten by a nose by Kew Gardens in his last outing, he had put together a string of 10 consecutive victories; half of these were within one length, with all but one within two. His are also psychological victories over the other horses. He trails his opposition, passes them and then stays just far enough ahead to remind his chasers that they're still in the same race and won't win.

A far better guide to Master Of Reality's form is that he was beaten by a nose by Dee Ex Bee into 3rd and finished 0.75L in front of Cross Counter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB69t2__p9w. The Gold Cup is a real stayer's contest, held over 4000m though. Foreign raiders here have said that European horses with form over 2400m seem to fare better in the Melbourne Cup. They tend to have more speed in the arsenal, which may be more effective given the stop-start nature of our race.

One of the most appealing angles of Master Of Reality is his weight: he carries 2kg less than his rating says he should. His Official Irish Rating is currently 118 - equal highest in the field, level with Cross Counter - a mark he reached following this Ascot Gold Cup run and maintained during two subsequent Irish performances. The official rating is meant to capture the ability of a horse over its most suited distance range. Effectively, Greg Carpenter is saying that Master Of Reality is 2kg/4L worse over the Melbourne Cup trip.

Looking at his pedigree stuff, Master Of Reality is the dourest Frankel in the field. His Dosage Profile is (1-3-14-8-2) with DI 0.65 and CD -0.25; there is very little in the way of Brilliance figures and he has the lowest CD in the race. That's an indication that he's best suited at further than 4300m, so no wonder he did well in the Ascot Gold Cup. His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-6-4-12-7) with Speed 9, Stamina 19, Index 0.53 and Triads (13-22-23); again best suited at above 4000m. He's similar to Almandin and will want the race to motor along to an extent such that any fast finishers from the tail of the field will have their sprinting bursts dulled and their passage potentially blocked by fading horses.

His "shorter" distances this campaign were all over the 2800m. He began his series of runs in April with a neck victory over Mustajeer. His starting odds were $34, reflecting a 3yo season that was - kindly - mixed; gelding worked. Also behind him in the field were Southern France and Twilight Payment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGy9lOOH3r8. They all finished within 2L and were within 0.5kg of each other, as will be the case tomorrow. The bulk of the run is missing, but per comments, he lead the race for the duration.

Twilight Payment flipped the script in their next race, beating Master Of Reality by 5 lengths. He was unable to take the lead, and could only keep on at the one pace inside the straight: https://youtu.be/KqvcGmcA77o?t=172

Next was the Ascot Gold Cup and then a short break before the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ftKx9Ym-z0. It was the turn of Southern France and Downdraft to beat him after Master Of Reality lead once again and ran on one-paced, again, in the straight to finish a 4-length 3rd.

His final European race was the Irish St Leger itself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA. He lead in the early stages before Search For A Song, the only 3yo filly in the race, was upset with the pace and sped off to head them all. She put on a distance that the field couldn't run down, with Master Of Reality finishing in a knot of Melbourne Cup candidates (Southern France, Cross Counter, Latrobe and Twilight Payment) 4 lengths back. Once again, he made no impression in the last couple of furlongs and ran on one-paced.

From his #1 barrier he won't have much further to run, but he may have to work quite hard to be find a position in the first bunch, where he prefers it. Even were he to get that spot, that some runner in the huge field couldn't run him down in the straight - given his lack of speed - seems quite unlikely. I think he'll finish somewhere from 4th-14th (the wide range is getting a position vs on the fence mid-field).