6yo BR/BL Horse

Lando (GER) - Sky Dancing (IRE) [By Exit To Nowhere (USA)]

24s: 7-2-1

It all went wrong for Sound/Sound Check last season. His final race before departure was the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin. He finished just a neck behind Best Solution, an Irish-bred globetrotter that would soon join him in Australia for a Cups tilt. Best Solution would go on to win the 2018 Caulfield Cup and - despite a 2kg swing in his favour and the race being over the same distance - Sound proved wisely unloved in the betting, finishing 10 lengths back in 12th position.

Aside from one trip to Italy, all his racing was in Germany. Perhaps the travel didn't suit. It didn't go any better for him in the Melbourne Cup. He travelled among the frontrunners for much of the race but was taken via the carpark on the turn, dropping 15 spots over a couple hundred metres. He ended up 18th after not running on in the straight.

He stayed on in Australia after last year's Cup and endeavored to regroup for an Autumn campaign. His lead-up races weren't encouraging and the end result wasn't any different: a meek 8th in the Sydney Cup. No other horses from this year's Sydney Cup have made the Melbourne Cup field. Sound has only qualified by virtue of his performance in Berlin last year.

He's started at over $100 in each of his three races so far this season. The first two were over unfavourable distance and the latest was the Caulfield Cup. Though the 10th place finish looks disappointing, he was only 4 lengths off Mer De Glace and was severely checked in the straight: https://youtu.be/esSOa1T_6M4?t=120. He was in the front wall of horses around the turn, but being widest he lost a length. Into the straight he was then sandwiched between Vow And Declare and Red Verdon, losing all momentum and getting shot out the back. We never actually got to see what he could do and - all things considered - he went pretty well. His run looked as good as Mustajeer's, who is at $15 tomorrow while Sound languishes at $100.

On that scant claim though, it's hard to overturn the burden of evidence of all his poor runs in Australia. His trainer contends that his Autumn form is misleading, citing a poor ride that would have otherwise seen him come 2nd, and feet issues which meant that each race preparation was rushed. He was confident coming in to Spring that Sound would show his true colours.

According to his figures, Sound has a Dosage Profile of (2-1-7-0-0), with DI of 1.86 and CD of 0.5. That gives a preferred distance indication of 2100m. His Conduit Mare Profile hints at a a little further: (3-6-5-8-8) with Speed 9 and Stamina 16. His Conduit Index is 0.59 and Triads are (14-19-21). I'd say that's a good 3200m profile. His record over 2800m+ (even including his heretofore dire Australian form) is pretty good: 3w-1p from 7 starts.

Hoping for the best and expecting the worst sums things up. I certainly think he should be shorter than $100 but given all the black marks I'd anticipate him finishing somewhere in the teens rather than at the top.