4yo B Horse

Savabeel (AUS) - The Glitzy One (AUS) [By Flying Spur (AUS)]

16s: 5-2-0

The Chosen One had a big Summer and Autumn, running 8 times over 15,500m of racing. The bulk of that was in New Zealand where, following a truncated 3yo Spring campaign that started with two victories on debut, he had some up-and-down performances that corresponded with the size of the prize of offer.

Following a win in the Group 3 2000m Manawatu Classic (http://www.racingreplays.co.nz/medi...330MTU04_BB.mp4) Murray Baker tried his luck in the Australian Derby. Per his Jockey Blake Shinn: "I thought he ran a tremendous race, I had to take the horse back to negate the wide draw, they didn’t go that fast, he made a searching run from the 650m and he hit the line strongly.": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktwlH_Z6WPQ. He fell 3.7 lengths short in that Australian Derby, but it worked a treat in his next race with victory in the Frank Packer: "We made another searching run on him but we were coming back 400m in trip so I was mindful of that. He did the job nicely, he is a lovely horse."

He spelled back in New Zealand before returning to Australia this Spring. He began in the Feehan Stakes and continued into the Underwood, each of them too short for his pedigree and the running style he earlier saw success with.

It's his next 3 races which are the telling ones. The Chosen One won the Herbert Power, beating Prince Of Arran by 0.5kg and earning ballot exemption for the Caulfield Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnQEfIIoKH4. It was back to script: running towards the rear and then putting on a burst in the finishing straight. The leading pair put 3 lengths on the rest of the them, though they will meet each other in the Cup with The Chosen One 1.5kg worse off. This victory also meant that he passed the first ballot clause and picked up a 0.5kg penalty.

Drawing barrier 18 in the Caulfield Cup (as he has for the Melbourne Cup) he was the widest runner and loped over to be at the tail of the field, trailing Mustajeer and Mer De Glace. When it came time to push the button he didn't have the pace needed to match these higher class horses and finished a 4-length 9th: https://youtu.be/esSOa1T_6M4?t=104.

I don't know why he elected to run in the Hotham Handicap. By the time all the chips fell, there was no way he could be pushed out of the Melbourne Cup field. It seems a very odd decision to choose to exhaust your horse a couple of days out from the Melbourne Cup. To run tomake the field is understandable, but...*shrug*. His 5th place finish, 8 lengths adrift, may be some indication that he tanked it, but the Steward's Report has it that he was unsettled: needing resaddling at the barrier and having to be restrained over the early and middle stages.

It's certainly not the best form to carry into the Cup and there must be some query over the distance, given only one success > 2000m and otherwise plenty of disappointment.

His Dosage Profile is (6-15-19-2-4) with DI 1.97 and CD 0.37; so around 2400m - or slightly longer, given the 4 Professional points - looks ideal. He also reaches that distance without sacrificing much at all in the speed categories. His Conduit Mare Profile is (6-4-0-8-8) with Speed 10, Stamina 16, Index 0.67 and Triads (10-12-16). Around the 2800m mark looks ideal. The 6 in the Brilliant position also agrees by this measure that he has some toe. In the final field, very few have as many pointers of speed, and even less maintaining their aptitude over distance.

I think this might all be a year too early though. I don't understand the Hotham run at all and can't see how that puts him in peak condition. Given his race style he'll have to be ridden for luck, so why lessen your odds? There are a few timelines in our multidimensional universe where he trots to the running rail from the start, coasts behind the field running which are going at a brutal pace and then takes a shortcut up the inside to, without encountering any interference to just triumph on the line....but I can't see it happening in this one. The current odds ($67) are pretty accurate; should finish back in the late teens to last range.