5yo B Mare

High Chaparral (IRE) - Starspangled (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]

21s: 4-1-4

I did last year's profile on Youngstar ahead of her Caulfield Cup performance. I queried whether she'd even go on to the Melbourne Cup, given that her trainer Chris Waller had said Caulfield was her grand final. Well, one of us is some kind of genius after I wrote "[w]ith a light weight in the Melbourne Cup I could imagine her jetting through on the line for 4th or 5th." (Hint: it's Waller, not me: she did what I said but finished 6th). Not bad for an afterthought...

She's gone up just 0.5kg for this renewal: getting back 0.5kg from Prince Of Arran and 6.5kg from Cross Counter (sort of: it's more like 2.5kg when taking his natural aging into account) among those who finished in front of her last year. For some reason, she's 0.5kg worse off with respect to the horse that finished immediately in front of her, Finche.

Per her trainer, she's since put on 20kg of muscle. In hindsight he believes he tried her a year early, over-enthused by her placing behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes. Were she in the same form as last year you might expect much the same result this time around. Her Australian Official Handicap has dropped 3 points since last year though. Let's take a look....

Following the 2018 Melbourne Cup she spelled 'til Autumn and had a couple of disappointing runs before wrapping it up 'til Spring. Some barrier trials and "why bother" runs began her campaign with Waller subscribing to the theory that you should risk a horse running in races it has no chance in before its metre-age ticks over a certain point and it suddenly becomes fit. Like how you always see 800m runners contesting sprint races in the IAAF Diamond League ahead of the Olympics... /s

It's time to pay attention again in the Hill Stakes, over 2000m: https://youtu.be/7_JwSmG2NyU?t=94. It's not impressive. Makes very little ground in the straight where you would anticipate her to be doing her best work.

Her final lead-up race is in the 2600m St Leger Stakes with Youngstar initially racing midfield courtesy of the inside barrier, before she drifts back slightly, perhaps hoping to find the back from where she can subsequently swing out. She's still stuck on the rail however and Bowman is held up for almost the entirety of the straight. There's a crack of an opening in the last 100m and she looks to flatten out but makes little impression on the winner or the rest of the challengers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GDXxPrMgDQ.

No other runner from this race qualified for the Melbourne Cup. The only other starter she ran against this Spring was her stablemate Finche, both in the unsuited 1600m Chelmsford Stakes.

Youngstar actually had the oldest qualifying performance per the last Order of Entry, which went back to her Queensland Oaks win in May 2018. That was also her last victory. The 2.7L 3rd in the St Leger Stakes was both her closest and best finish this year, covering 8 races. Her form is not good.

Her Dosage Profile is (3-6-33-4-2) with DI 1.13 and CD 0.08. That implies 3300m. Her Conduit Mare Profile is (6-6-3-9-8), with Speed 12, Stamina 17, Index 0.75 and Triads (15-18-20). I defer to the Conduit Mare Profile and this says 2100m is more likely. Above all I defer to the horse's actual performances and they say she's 3w-2p:7s at 1885m - 2200m.

Waller could be playing four dimensional chess here, but even if he's aiming for her to peak on Cup Day, you'd expect a skerrick of evidence that Youngstar was responding well to that training. So far there's been anything but. Consequently she's a "no" from me. I think she'll be finishing mid to late teens.

...two to go! Hoping to do them quite late tonight