There's a post in my old AFL ratings thread that touches on this a little: http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...39&postcount=27.




The problem is that if it's easy to pick a winner, it's as easy for bookmakers to set appropriate odds.

Very broadly speaking, to come out ahead you have to either: do a better job at determining the odds than the professionals; pick your battles (i.e. you don't have to bet every game in every market - unlike a bookie); use information or methods that aren't widely available to others; or find people/bots to bet against who are worse at it than you!