I beleive this year it will be won by one of the horses with 8 or higher. That leaves us with 9 selections.

SIR DRAGONET (IRE)
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)
ASHRUN (FR)
TIGER MOTH (IRE)
FINCHE (GB)
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)
PERSAN

Based on these I would eliminate the following usiong the barrier:

ASHRUN
RUSSIAN CAMELOT
TIGER MOTH
KING OF LEOGRANCE
PERSAN

I would eliminate the following due to odds :

KING OF LEOGRANCE
PERSAN

I would remove the following from failing in previous Melb Cup attempts:

MASTER OF REALITY (Came 4th last year)
SURPRISE BABY (Came 5th last year)
FINCHE (Came 7th last year, 4th the year before)

I could almost be forgivable of the above rule this year due to COVID.

So what do we have left:

SIR DRAGONET (IRE)

If we include those who ran previously in a melbourne cup unplaced we are down to 4 horses:


SIR DRAGONET (IRE)
SURPRISE BABY
MASTER OF REALITY
FINCHE

My order of preference is :

Sire Dragonet
Suprise baby
Master of Reality

I'll risk Finche not be included after 2 failures already in the cup.

I am looking forward to seeing what others think.