Here's my view (Part I):


1 - Anthony Van Dyck
26 runners sired by Galileo progeny with 0 wins. 2 seconds and 2 thirds, so I'm not sure there's *too* much in that, but none of those placegetters carried 58.5kg. Beating Stradivarius is pretty good and coming 2nd to Ghaiyyath by just 2.5L is not too shabby either. So while he's not got a great win record at G1-level, against opposition like that it can be overlooked somewhat. He appears to be the best horse to contest the Melbourne Cup in a fair while, the only real queries on him are the distance and his weight in comparison to others. I reckon he's probably 0.5kg less than he should be; so much of a muchness there. I also reckon around 2400-2700m is his best so that weight may prove quite telling in the last couple of furlongs. Truth be told, horses carrying 58kg or above don't have a bad record this century. A few misses (Admire Rakti wasn't well, Snow Sky flubbed the ridiculous Prince of Penzance year, Septimus ran a stupid race in his, and Dunaden never saw a soft track again after his initial win) but the rest were handy: Makybe Diva won; Vinnie Roe finished 2nd, 4th and 8th; Americain was 4th then 11th in his final ever race; and Viewed was handicapped out of it following his win the previous year, still finishing 7th. He's a chance to win, but perhaps likelier to place; $10

2 - Avilius
Had his best run since coming to Australia in last month's Caulfield Cup: blocked for a run badly then almost caught Finche, and was only just shaded by Prince Of Arran. Meanwhile Avilius is at $51 in markets and that pair is $12-$18. Didn't really come on in Spring last year, and was only pretty good this Autumn, but appears to be in great form now. Even his trainer doesn't think he's suited to 3200m but he's won at 2500m previously and his one go in the 2018 Cup *looks* terrible but he almost fell over a broken-down horse and was found to have lacerations afterward. I agree that it's slightly beyond his preferred but he seems very much under the radar. Was $16 ahead of the Cup two years ago but on account of the extra kgs and how strong the field is this year: $26

3 - Vow And Declare
Should have been at least $51 last year. Ridiculous good fortune, a gifted ride, an opposition who handed him the race, and - finally - Il Paradiso and Master Of Reality trying to three-stooge their way past him, pushed him across the line in first. Only a chance if the field walks again, but it doesn't look like that kind of race. $71.

4 - Master Of Reality
No Frankie Dettori in the saddle so he could have a chance here... Doesn't look like he's in the form that preceded last year's Cup. Two big losses to Twilight Payment upon resuming, then two better runs but only at G3 and Listed level among mixed company and slow speed. Doesn't look classy enough or have much of a turn of foot if necessary. $26

5 - Sir Dragonet
There aren't many who have done the Cox Plate-Melbourne Cup double but trainer Ciaron Maher says he'll be even better in the latter. Couldn't receive a weight penalty following his Cox Plate win so if he can maintain the same level of performance then he's snuck by the handicapper a little. Last year he was just beaten by Anthony Van Dyck over 2400m at level weights; in the Cup he'll be carrying 3kg less. 2900m is his furthest contested distancce and in that race (last year) he beat Il Paradiso by 2 lengths. Both Il Paradiso in 2019 and Sir Dragonet in 2020 are 4kg under their benchmarks. I think he'll be fine over the 3200m and deserves to be favourite. $8

6 - Twilight Payment
11th in last year's Cup, but that's not saying much. Won a couple of times earlier in this campaign, comfortably, but in very slowly-run races. Melham appears to be the favoured jockey and he's aboard Master Of Reality, so it's hard to favour Twilight Payment over his stablemate. If team riding was allowed in the Cup *wink wink* I daresay that he would be towing Master Of Reality around the course. Hopefully the (Joseph) O'Brien camp - let alone the remainder of the field - know that they'll be handing the race to Verry Elleegant and/or her ilk if they try to go as slow this year as they did the last. $41

7 - Verry Elleegant
Arguably the best horse in Australia but I don't think she gets the distance and so is carrying a kg or two extra. Surely the rest of the field know they have to turn this into a staying contest, rather than a sit and sprint... They saw what happened in the Caulfield Cup with a soft middle section... It seemed self-evident last year as well though: it was as if people didn't want to win the Melbourne Cup, only not to lose it. I think Anthony Van Dyck comes out of the Caulfield Cup in a better position, but things could still fall Verry Elleegant's way. $17

8 - Mustajeer
Last good run was in the Tancred last year, finishing 4 lengths behind Verry Elleegant and with a 3kg turnaround in his favour now (and 2kg wrt Avilius who finished just behind). Unfortunately he's shown absolutely nothing since. Difficult to see him threatening. $101

9 - Stratum Albion
This is an interesting runner. Willie Mullins has brought across this style of older flat/hurdler a number of times: Max Dynamite most famously; Simenon another. Stratum Albion beat Nayef Road in his last flat race - over 3200m - and finished second to Enbihaar in the same, which is good form. Hasn't won the sole stakes race he's contested, but Max Dynamite had only won one ahead of his Cup debut/2nd placing: the Lonsdale Cup; i.e. the same race that Stratum Albion just contested. Max Dynamite similarly went directly into the Melbourne Cup from that race. I don't think Stratum Albion is quite of his standard but nor is he far off. We've also seen how runners like Prince Of Arran can improve in Australia; why not this guy? I don't mind him. I see him making a long, sustained run for home from 700-800m out, which will crush some spirits and cruel some chances. $26

10 - Dashing Willoughby
I think Greg Carpenter rates the Lonsdale Cup. He's handicapped Dashing Willoughby on that performance, where he carried the same as Stratum Albion and finished a length behind. He carries 0.5kg less here. He contested the Caulfield Cup, setting the pace for much of the race and then fading badly. I don't know that that's indicative of his standard; certainly not what he's dished up overseas. He's tried the same style of run a few times and hopefully Michael Walker has learned a few lessons. His mount doesn't have the turn off foot to allow him to slow the tempo; he just needs to string the field out to be a shot. Said to have improved following his Caulfield performance and will prefer a bigger track, I'd think. $41

11 - Finche
He'll be thereabouts, as always, but doesn't appear to have the class to triumph, no matter the type of race that gets served up. Find it unlikely that he'll be winning, but he'll be up there so can't be entirely discounted either. $21

12 - Prince Of Arran
Two firsts, two seconds and two thirds in his Australian runs, ahead of a 4th in the Caulfield Cup just gone. Will be throwing his hat in the ring but the standard this year seems a little higher than his previous runs. $18