Still waiting on the race conditions to appear on RV's website...


Current Top 5 in the betting (per Sportsbet):


#1 - Prince Of Arran - $15

Three-time Melbourne Cup placegetter Prince Of Arran is equal favourite. It's that history rather than current form that has him top of the pops - now at 9 years old. He resumed racing 3 months after the 2020 Melbourne Cup, contesting a 3200m race on all-weather with the lowest purse he's faced in nearly 4 years. The result was a close third-place finish: of only 4 starters.

Two runs since then have been in higher-grade company, the first of these a very disappointing effort in Saudi Arabia, prompting his trainer Charlie Fellowes to jump onto Twitter: "All plans on hold for PRINCE OF ARRAN for the time being after a 2nd very slow start in a row," he tweeted. "He owes us absolutely nothing and we will take our time before making any further decisions on his future. He is safe and well after his race and flies back to England on Monday."

Following rumours that Prince of Arran had run his last race, and with his name missing from Gold Cup nominations, Fellowes said the following: "The Lexus Melbourne Cup in 2021 is very much our number one target and I felt like travelling to Dubai would be the wrong thing to do with that in mind".

He's since raced back at home, finishing 11 lengths behind a field led by Stradivarius; Prince Of Arran at $34 was never in it.

The good news though, I guess, is that he was doing just as bad ahead of last year's Cup! Fellowes has previously expressed concern regarding the strict new veterinary requirements for international Cup entrants. You'd imagine Prince Of Arran would be in good order if he'd make the trip. This far out though, and favourite? There for name recognition only, surely...



#2 - Tiger Moth - $15

Ran once since his runner-up finish in last year's Cup: came last. Reported prior to that race: "We don’t really see him as a stayer. We ran him in the Melbourne Cup as we felt he was very well-in at the weights there (carrying 52.5kg) and that it was worth taking a chance. "I don’t think he’ll go for the Melbourne Cup again as he’d have a lot more weight to carry, but he showed he can travel and operate down there, so he could go back there for other big races over shorter trips."

Aside from that, he doesn't like the pre-screening either: "I’m not sure whether we get to go to Australia with many horses at all this year because there’s a new scan that very few horses will pass," O’Brien said.

"So really, it’s probably impossible for us to go with horses if that is one of the new things this year, maybe that can change.

"I would imagine very few of them will get through that and probably very few of them we would ask to do that with."

It's likely that's all talk, trying to shift policy somewhat, but it seems doubtful that even if Tiger Moth did come, that he'd be contesting the Cup.

Was set to run in Ireland last weekend - over 2400m - but was scratched due to changed track conditions. Nominated for July's Goodwood Cup and September's Irish St Leger.



#3 - Incentivise - $17

Won earlier today, comprehensively, at his first Group race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e88bvNh1L3M. Went against some quality runners, including Mirage Dancer and Southern France, and smacked them by 12 lengths. This was his 6th win in a row, beginning with his maiden in April.

He's the race favourite at most of the other books; price will likely come in here tomorrow. Still only has a rating of 82 but now has a qualifying performance on the board. Looks like he'd comfortably make the Cup distance!

Following this race, he's being moved to Melbourne for a Spring campaign to be plotted by Peter Moody.



#4 - Kemari - $19

Kemari is this year's Tiger Moth and so on: a lightly-raced Northern Hemisphere 3yo. Only 3 races so far, for 2 wins: a 6L Maiden victory and the 3yo Group 2 Queen's Vase (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HRYDmoKHuE).

From trainer Charlie Appleby after that race:"“I hope he will make up into a Cup horse for next year. This year - as we all know, in the past few years three-year-olds in the Melbourne Cup, they have produced the goods. Whether he gets to that level, we’ll see, but we’ll enjoy today and have the discussions with our principals and managers during the next few weeks and map the autumn out. He’s got a profile that is working in that direction, anyway."

"I think Kemari is quite a straightforward horse. I would say he is [Melbourne Cup type]. The team know that race well and I would be very surprised if they don't have one eye on that race."

Appleby also trained Cross Counter, another gelded 3yo who had to look overseas for suitable racing targets. If the vetting conditions hadn't changed this year, I'd be pretty confident of him coming over. Will have to wait and see how keen Godolphin are on that though.



#5 - Zaaki - $19

Won his last 3 in Queensland: open group races, at that. Had over 20 starts before arriving in the country, the bulk of which were over 1600-2000m, and none further than 2100m. The $3.50 favourite for the Cox Plate, which seems the main target. Would have to be a big query on him then targeting the Cup...