25th October 2021, 11:33 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 602
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Here are the results of "the system". Back in my first Melbourne Cup thread I wrote a profile on several contenders, for most I included a form factor angle that I had encountered in my research and how that particular horse fared. After the race was run and done, I tallied up how all the runners scored on each of these form factors and the winner happened to be the only horse with the highest possible score.
For the next year or two the winner was found on the top two "rungs" of the scoring ladder, I believe. The last two renewals it hasn't done as well, most likely because of the pace the races were contested: Vow And Declare won a sit and sprint in 2019 and then last year, the front-running Twilight Payment was allowed to win when none of the other jockeys were brave enough to make a move.
If there are any marked changes after the weekend's racing I'll post it again then. Otherwise I'll wait 'til the morning of to account for the odds.
| Horse | Order | Total | Less than 8yo | Wgt < 57kg | Not a mare | <= $21 SP | < $16 in last | Wgtd < than in last | FS in last >= 10 | Won Black Type | <=3L in last | <6 victories | | SIR LUCAN (IRE) | 24 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | GRAND PROMENADE (GB) | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | PONDUS (GB) | 19 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | FORGOT YOU (NZ) | 30= | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | TRALEE ROSE (NZ) | 17 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | FLOATING ARTIST (GB) | 27 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | | MANKAYAN (IRE) | 30= | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | | INCENTIVISE | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | SPANISH MISSION (USA) | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | JOHNNY GET ANGRY (NZ) | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | MIAMI BOUND (NZ) | 11 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | DELPHI (IRE) | 14 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | CARIF | 18 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | KNIGHTS ORDER (IRE)
| 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | FUN FACT | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | AWAY HE GOES (IRE) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | | EMISSARY (GB) | 30= | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | | EXPLOSIVE JACK (NZ) | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | SELINO (GB) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | MASTER OF WINE (GER) | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | PORT GUILLAUME (FR) | 21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | GREAT HOUSE (IRE) | 26 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) | 30= | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | FUTURE SCORE (IRE) | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | HASTA LA WAR | 28 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | TOORADIN | 30= | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | PERSAN | 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | OCEAN BILLY (NZ) | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | MOSH MUSIC | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | AMADE (IRE) | 29 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
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