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Originally Posted by Shaun
Not sure what to do with this one, look at TAB fixed opening prices and back every runner listed $2 or less, a couple other filters are barrier 6 or less and leader or midfield runner.
Lots of winners and placing but prices short, BF is best, i have been playing around with stopping at 3 units profit or 2 units loss.
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Hi Shaun,
Good Question, the stats say, early races produce more wining fav then late races, if that's the case, stopping at "", unit profit would be the way to go. The most important decision to make is when to invest, last minute? The stats suggest, the market early will be around 135%. At jump, it could be as low as 110%. This indicates, investing early, will give you better value.
Now, your $2.20 fav early, could change, to be as low as $1.90.
So, in your system, betting $2.00 or less, you would have missed out on considerable value and long term, you will lose, even betting in those early races.
Time wise is so critical, in investing at the pointy end of the market, there is not a lot of margin and you need every edge possible.
You are correct, BF is better than Tab odds, around 16% better than tote on average, after commission around the 12% mark, now that's an edge not to overlook.
For interest sake I ran your System through my data base, results below.
Tab fixed price at jump time =<$2.00, BP<7 and Settling <6.
Code:
WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 612 588
Races Won: 319 464
S.R./Race: 52.1% 78.9%
Outlay($): 612.00 588.00
Return : 532.75 540.84
$ Profit : -79.25 -47.16
% P.O.T. : -12.9% -8.0%
Top Win Return: $568.41 Top Win Profit: $-43.59 Top Win % P.O.T.: -7.1%