its a funny question.
i qualify in the top 10 worst punters of all time so i wont be much help.
but.' its hard to argue that the form horses didnt run first and second in the underwood.
its hard to argue that form horses didnt win the last race (strikeline) its hard to argue that regal roller isnt a track specialist and won his 6th race over 1400 at caulfied and had won a couple in a row at group 2 level.
hollow bullet in my opinion had good form.
tirade ( even i backed it) had good form in being placed two in a row at group level..
shirvirgo had run second at his last start at listed level by .4 of a length.
confectioner won a listed race last start.

no i dont know how to answer your question
perhaps someone else can.
good luck