Looking at past races to see how the method works.

Here's an eligible race. Race 8, Flemington, June 8th. An out.

The selection was #7 Moonah Brooke. A great set of numbers, but not there at the winning post. The other two last start winners were. Three in the race and I selected the one who didn't salute. But I can't see any reason I wouldn't have backed Moonah Brooke. Met all parameters. Neither of the other LSW were comparable.

Maybe my selection criteria find horses that are too good? Maybe such horses only exist on paper. In real life and the rough and tumble of a race maybe a horse needs a bad stat or two to make it a goer? Maybe I should add a final rule: eliminate any horse that meets ALL parameters. Real placegetters just aren't that good!

An example of the parameters working well to save me money was Eagle Farm, Race 5, June 8th. Three last start winners, Altiero, Forest Jim, Maltese Beauty. On first sights, one of them should be a selection. Alteiro has outstanding stats and meets all preferred parameters, including saddlecloth and highest weighted LSW, but fails on the essential parameter, nines. Recent form = 4x561. No way you can make 9 out of that. 4+5+1 = 10. Disqualified. This calculation really means there is a question mark about recent reliable form that is big enough question mark to rule a line through this one. Only one point, I know, but essential parameter. You can relax preferred ones but not essential ones. No nines - out.

Maltese Beauty likes to lead but has drawn barrier 12. Out.

So we turn to Forest Jim. Forest Jim looks promising. Essential parameters OK. But fails three of the preferred parameters. Saddlecloth - no. Highest weight LSW - no. 1st-6th second last start - no. Since Altiero is only eliminated on one criterion, and so you'd have to rate it a strong chance, Forest Jim would need to be compelling. But three fails. Out. So this race is no bet. And so it was. None of the qualifiers placed.

This does not take account of my innate capacity to over-ride my own rules and mess it up.

Finally, here's a winner. Eagle Farm, R2, #2, Smart Chariot. By my system, a sure thing. And so it was. Everyone agreed. It paid $1.20.

Was it Equine Investor who posted wise words about having an angle? I guess the angle in this system is sheer, monolithic patience. Bit by bit, $1.20 by $1.20 you wear the system down. Again, its the strike rate that counts, not the price, but you could set a price parameter too.

If Smart Chariot was eliminated on price grounds, then we turn to Race 6. Vic. Park. #2 Romadila. Meets the parameters, ran first, $1.70 place (Vic. TAB). ($3.40 win,). Almost as good as Smart Chariot on paper at a healthier price. But would I have bet that way on the day?

Not calculating my strike rate for this from old races though. I think with something like this you can only gauge a strike rate on future races.

Hermes