Quote:
On 2002-07-08 11:56, lumbarsua wrote:
So the only profitable horses (assuming avg div etc) would be the unplaced ones LS, unless the placegetters won 2 out of their next 5 starts.
Avg dividends can be misleading, with $20 dividends distorting figures.
You obviously can't follow every horse which won a metro start recently. So if you pick and choose you might end up with dividends less than the avg.
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You have to look at the figures a little more objectively. No, you can't obviously back every horse, or back every horse that was unplaced at it's last start. The figures are meant as a guide only in order to formulate a refined system. There is an absolute bounty of statistics on this forum; it's how you make use of these statistics which will pay in the end.
Average dividends are just that averages. There is no reason to take into account distortion because just as there will always be horses paying upwards of $20 there will also be horses paying $1.50 etc. Averages will always balance themselves out, given enough races / horses.
The idea with the data is to apply it to horses at big prices, which have been overlooked by the betting public due to unplaced form. Trainers do not keep racing horses which are well below form, they spell them after a few bad runs. I.E. four or five bad runs. Therefore you have to read stewards reports etc. Maybe a horses poor performance could be because it is a leader and has drawn wide over its last few races over say 1400m.
Then suddenly it draws barrier four or six and wins at 10/1 even though it's past form was average. The point being the horse always had the ability, it was the victim of poor riding, interference or badly drawn.
I think when devising any system, luck in running etc. is very underrated. That is why there will always be long priced winners that are overlooked.
I am not talking about "donkeys" which finished 10 lengths behind the winner at three of it's previous starts, or only ever won one metro race out of 50 starts. I am talking about good horses that are down on recent form.
Lady Wild for instance will salute at huge odds when she wins next, because her latest form is below average, but we all know she is capable of a good win. She has had a couple of placings at Sandown and was a Listed Race winner in July last year.
Sportsbrat won at $13.00
Sheer Devotion won at $8.60
Just some examples.
There is value out there, it's just a matter of finding it, rather than going for obvious choices, which sometimes fail at poor odds anyway.
[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-09 12:58 ]