A few contenders tommorow and a selection.

Race 8 at Warwick Farm. Kurrajong Mist.

Meets all essential parameters but fails two preferred. Looking closer the last start win wasn't very convincing - a nose at Cessnock - and the start before that, tenth at Rosehill. In contrast see Coablo in this race. Third last start, but only by a tad at Rosehill. Coablo's last was better than Kurrajong Mist's despite the form figures. Jockey - an apprentice but still up in weight. Not convinced by the last start performance. Don't like it. No bet.


Race 6 Sandown #5 Power in Motion.

A winner at Donald last start up against a winner at Bendigo and a winner at Sale. But doesn't have the preferred place percentage. Worse, race on the pace, barrier 11. Out.

Race 2 Sandown #1 Stolen Crown.

Looks good all round but below the preferred place percentage which is a worry. Not a good place percentage. Also, no starts this track. But good form. Has put together three good results, 121 in last starts, all good races in Melb, all with apprentices, as this time. Running on the pace from barrier 5. OK. The other last start winner, Blamey, can't compare. And the competition isn't flash. Look at the zip ratings. Stolen Crown gets the zip star, three full zip points ahead of its nearest rival. The zip rater thinks its head and shoulders above the rest. And the top zip is 57. The bottom is 49. In ten runners! Most races are much, much tighter. Reflected in the prize winnings too. Top horse, the Doctor's Son = $3225. Bottom horse, Connemara Marble = $308. (Compare this to say Race 5. 6 zip points between top and bottom in 14 runners. Top prize = 3665, Bottom = 1087.)

The Doctor's Son ran 9th by over 12 lengths last up.

Rock of Ages should be up there but prefer Stolen Crown's record over the distance.

So selection is #1 Stolen Crown to place. Five stars with bells.

I'm less sure it will win though. But in the context of such a race I think its a selection to place for sure. My judgement is that in this field it will be there among the first three.

Boring but there it is. Hoping for something better than $1.20!

Hermes