my guess is that higher weighted horses in weaker races are working through the classes.
in higher graded races the lower weighted horses are working through the classes.
e.g. the winner of the epsom last week was number 12 was well backed and expected to perform but was well down in the weights.
new form is better than old form in class races
in my listed categories very few top races are won by last years champions.
good example in the cranbourne cup on a jeune won a listed race, placed in a listed race late last year placed in sajc derby group one and was number 9 in open company in the cranbourne cup but had good form with good form in the barossa cup.
also out of options which won the following race at cranbourne was number one and won a listed race in brisbane a few starts before during the winter.
its difficult to blindly follow the tab no.s due to the graduation from high grade 2 and 3 year old to restricted or open company older races.
good luck with. back good form and should get good results.