Yep sorry, I just realized 8.7% is full kelly for a 50/50 bet.

Average price is actually $3.99, with a stikerate of 28.99%. Fully kelly suggests betting 5.24% of your bankroll on each bet.

It is better to bet a % of your bankroll, you experience exponential growth.

Like Woof said, betting Full Kelly is a bit dangerous. My opinion is you should be betting 3.59%. With your record, there is a 97.5% chance you will hit 10.7%POT or greater going forward, meaning 3.59% would be the full kelly figure. You are very safe betting this %.

So to answer your original question, there is a 97.5% chance that your edge going forward is at least 10.7%.

As to bet size, you should choose a size you are comfortable with, as long as it's not overbetting. You might not feel comfortable with 3.59%, but you should definately be betting more than you currently are. Maybe 2 to 2.5%???

Betting a larger % will lead to larger swings, but your BR will also grow alot quicker. Taking 6k out of a 150k BR hurts less than taking it out of a 50k BR.