Mo,A simple but effective way to trim down any race is to only consider those runners on the first 5 lines of the betting.I do tend to agree wiyh your statement that figures can at times be somewhat misleading,however having said that it has statistically been proven since the year dot that this group of horses win approximately 80% of all races run.Roughies do not win that many races ,neither do battling trainers or lower echelon jockeys.If you are selective with your races,you can make this work for you.My only reccommendation is NOT to take any notice of the prepost prices,just the horses on the first 5 lines.If there is more than 1 nag on any given line,consider them all,but don't go beyond the 5th line.Then do your own form study,best trainer,best jockey,barrier draw,recent form,days since last start,etc. and narrow it down to your outright selection.Then do your own ratings,or subscribe to a ratings service,or utilise the free ratings on this site,which have personally to be very good,and they are free.Then convert your ratings to prices,and back the overlays.This method will take you away from the "herd"mentality.I Personally like to concentrate on races where IMO the fav does not warrant being fav.Another stat that has stood the test of time.....favs win approx 30% ofall races.Nothing like stating the obvious,but on the obverse side of the coin,that means they lose 70% of the time,and that is the % advantage that I am trying to exploit.I have my own criteria that I use to eliminate "false"favs,but they are quite rigorous and I am not prepared to post them at this point in time.Also have a very good method for quinellas incorporated with this.Contrary to popular opinion THERE is value to be had in quins,if you bet to prices(yours)and there are overlays galore,especially in the 10/1 or less price range.If anyone is interested in quinella betting,I will start a quinella thread further down the track.
cheers