Thanks Bhagwan. Yes, I have been looking at many factors including second last starts for ways to separate the chaff from the wheat. Doing some calculations to see if your suggestion increases POT.

My current experimental set of filters is working fine on past races so here's tommorows prognosis:

Tommorow's qualifers (wednesday 17th July): lowest tabbed last start winners are listed below.

I have rated their chances of running a place on a scale of 0-4. Zero = no bet. You could bet 2 units on a 2, 3 units on a 3 etc. Or ignore the ratings. No horses rated 4 tommorow but several no bets.

CHELTENHAM

R2 #1 Diver Dave - 1
R4#1 San Sonata - 2
R5 #1 Miss Revic - 1
R7 #9 Mr Vandaam - no bet
R8 #1 Blue Bows - no bet.

GRAFTON

R1 #2 Point Guard - 2
R4 #1 Casual Story - 2
R5 #1 Miss Smugg - 1
R6#1 Sir Redford - 1
R7#2 Stormcat Academy - 3
R8#7 Nikolinis - 2

RANDWICK (Kensington)

R1#1 Al Megdam - 1
R3#6 Covet Thee - 1
R4#3 Acceptive - 1
R4#2 Azzeal - 1
R6#1 Rain Statesman - 1
R7#5 Perry Can Do - no bet
R8#7 Painter's Brush - 1


FLEMINGTON

R1#9 Liston - no bet
R3#3 Lightning Ridge - 1
R4#4 Jacque - 1
R5 #1 Intermagic - no bet
R6#6 Mystic Melody - 1
R8#3 Medori Gift - 2

EAGLE FARM

R4#2 Duel Fuel - 2
R5#6 Interior Trim - no bet
R6#10 Ditty Doo - no bet

Some healthy place strike rates in this lot. Note Nikolonis - 72.7% place average from 11 starts. Casual Story - 71.4% from 7 starts. Sir Redford - 61.1% from 18. Painter's Brush - 66.6% from 9 starts. etc.

Despite the rating I don't actually like Stormcat's chances at Grafton race 7. A very competitive field. A stack of last start winners. Of them I prefer Caissa #5 to win. But we'll leave Stormat the selection, rated 3 to run a place.They say it will overcome the barrier. Not enough, I think.

Go punting to all

Hermes