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20th July 2002, 07:18 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 18
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Bhagwan: There are lies,damned lies and statistics. Most winners come from barriers 1-10 say because there are fewer races with larger fields. The influence of the barrier depends on the length of the race and the shape of the course. Barrier 14 in a field of 14 over 1400m at Caufield is very different from Barrier 14 in field of 14 over 1200m or 2400m at Flemington. This is one of the disadvantages of using a mechanical system. The appropriate statistic is the strike rate (%wins from starts)for a particular barrier over a given distance at a particular course. Of course with luck in running anything is possible. Remember Gurner's Lane?
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